Risk aversion dominating the financial markets on concern Greek debt crisis may spread led Emerging Market currencies getting sold off around 2.5-3.0 % accordingly.

Turkish Lira, after failing to break 1.9610 against Euro and 1.4790 against the greenback, suffered significantly with benchmark  local bond traded at 9.59% compounded.

USDTRY broke the 55 days SMAVG at 1.5156 and printed the last 24 hours high at 1.5248 in Asian session this morning.

I think 1.5225-1.5265 area ( resistance levels appear as bullish trend channel topsides both on daily and weekly charts ) is worth to try a short USDTRY with a tight SL at.5325, targeting 1.4965 and 1.4760 accordingly.

I finally managed to find the rhythm in trading last month despite a red number in P&L.  Market trading on the back of bear traps after a worse than expected NFP early in January helped me to pick the levels for a possible risk aversion. Guessing the turnaround in S&P and Crude Oil helped me to stay on the track for the rest of the month at the times of troubles.

Staying short EURUSD from 1.44s, AUDUSD from 0.9250s vs. long USDTRY from 1.45s and USDJPY from 88.50-89.30 area was good enough to cheer me up while losing money in illiquid Asian session two-way customer flows and stop-loss order executions in Wellington openings.

With the expectation of a black number in February, it is time to keep the motivation, confidence and team-work as high as possible to clear the sky from suspicious clouds. To make that happen, I need to have a better decision making mechanism which is only possible if I am energetic and in shape so  No drinking and losing weight policy for 2 months starting from today.

We are going to have the mighty NFP this Friday ( +15k exp.) and once again,  the rest of the month will be more based on that number.  I will be paying a lot of attention to a weekly close below/above at 1070 in S&P and 1.3868 ( 200 SMAVG in weekly) in EURUSD.

On 13th of Jan, Charting USDTRY post suggested a break of 1.4565 to test 1.4795 and 1.4955 accordingly with a tight SL at 1.4450.

Despite breaking 1.4565, the EURTRY stops getting triggered on EURUSD drop helped Turkish Lira to resist around 1.4665 and til the day before, USDTRY had a 1.4450-1.4650 range. The break of 1.4710 on the back of risk aversion and EM universe weakness  put more pressure on Turkish Lira and 1.4895 highs traded overnight.

Despite daily oscillators pointing a bullish momentum forming, USDTRY has 55 days SMAVG at 1.4909  and 200 days  WMAVG at 1.4940 while our inital take profit target was at 1.4955.

I think it is time to take profit  for those who were able to ride the long USDTRYs from 1.4500 till up here and reverse the direction for a retrace down to 1.4715 with a tight  SL at 1.4955.

Since the break of 1.4975 support in USDTRY on the back of  IMF deal and extending the rally with S&P upgrade, Turkish Lira rallied against major currencies and in relative value trades against SA Rand as well.

After the China news overnight, market seems to be decreasing the long TRY positions and 1.45 support holding it firmly. Hearing good out-flows of USDs  yesterday led USDTRY rallying up to 1.4620 while EURTRY printed 2.1180 at the same time.

Despite TRY bulls tend to test 200 weeks WMAVG at 1.4255, We may have a turnaround in the market if  USDTRY closes above 1.4565 today with Slow Stochastic, MACD Forest and RSI pointing a reversal instead of strong downside momentum.

A break of topside resistance suggests a quick rush up to 1.4795-1.4805 resistance ( 38.2% retrace of 1.5295 to 1.4483 drop) and if  the risk off continues,  the test of 1.4955-85 resistance is inevitable as we have 55 days SMAVG at 1.4955 vs. the bottom of the broken bullish trend channel at 1.4985.

So in addition market position adjustment taking place, I am keen to go long USDTRY between 1.4485-1.4535 with a stop-loss at 1.4455, targeting 1.4795 and 1.4955 on the back of daily oscillators.