Conspiracy theorists have observed that China hiked its RRR on January 12 and February 12; a swift glance at the calendar reveals that today is March 12.  Informa Global Markets also told its customers that  2 inv. houses say PBOC hikes rates today as well

1125 support is definitely a level  that BOK identified and the risk on the downside is 1085-95 area if 1120-25 breaks which will be quick drop with strong momentum in an oversold area.

If only RRR hike comes in,  it will be a nice short squeeze in  a well positioned market  and first target is where you see the resistance on that reverse head& shoulder around 1165-1170.. to break it .. needs extra news globally.

As a trading idea,

Buy 1w USDKRW call by paying 35k USD for premium.  5 mio USD notional with an atm spot  strike.
35k vs. 128k.. loss/win ratio with  tp at 1165.

                          

David Greenlaw, MS Economist, had an interview with BBG radio the day before and spoke about his forecast for the next payrolls number. He is expecting a weather related rebound of +100k, a census impact of +100k and an ex-weather, ex-census rise of +100k (total headline payroll increase of +300k or more).

The front end of US Yield Curve is expected to shift higher if unemployment numbers comes in-line with NFP.  It is possible to see a further USD strength but market may not let people taking advantage of an easy trade and may bring some extra volatility in coming days as Move Index picking up from the oversold area.

For now, I think Dollar Index (DXY) seems to be capped at the moment and looking for a retrace down to  79.65-79.75 area with momentum turning into bearish at the moment. We have 55 weekly SMAVG and 23.8% fibonacci retrace of 74.17 to 81.34 rally.

Just to bear in mind.

                          

I

Living is no laughing matter:
you must live with great seriousness
like a squirrel, for example-
I mean without looking for something beyond and above living,
I mean living must be your whole occupation.
Living is no laughing matter:
you must take it seriously,
so much so and to such a degree
that, for example, your hands tied behind your back,
your back to the wall,
or else in a laboratory
in your white coat and safety glasses,
you can die for people-
even for people whose faces you’ve never seen,
even though you know living
is the most real, the most beautiful thing.
I mean, you must take living so seriously
that even at seventy, for example, you’ll plant olive trees-
and not for your children, either,
but because although you fear death you don’t believe it,
because living, I mean, weighs heavier.

II

Let’s say you’re seriously ill, need surgery -
which is to say we might not get
from the white table.
Even though it’s impossible not to feel sad
about going a little too soon,
we’ll still laugh at the jokes being told,
we’ll look out the window to see it’s raining,
or still wait anxiously
for the latest newscast …
Let’s say we’re at the front-
for something worth fighting for, say.
There, in the first offensive, on that very day,
we might fall on our face, dead.
We’ll know this with a curious anger,
but we’ll still worry ourselves to death
about the outcome of the war, which could last years.
Let’s say we’re in prison
and close to fifty,
and we have eighteen more years, say,
before the iron doors will open.
We’ll still live with the outside,
with its people and animals, struggle and wind-
I mean with the outside beyond the walls.
I mean, however and wherever we are,
we must live as if we will never die.

III

This earth will grow cold,
a star among stars
and one of the smallest,
a gilded mote on blue velvet-
I mean this, our great earth.
This earth will grow cold one day,
not like a block of ice
or a dead cloud even
but like an empty walnut it will roll along
in pitch-black space …
You must grieve for this right now
-you have to feel this sorrow now-
for the world must be loved this much
if you’re going to say “I lived” …

Nazim Hikmet

                          

Bit late after that move in GBP, but this looks like   T H E trade to me  – according to my chart.

With the shocking RICS data, CABLE took out the lower side of the “Bear Flag” (see blue lines), which should open up for a bigger move lower.

Suggestions:  Sell CABLE between 1.5040-60 S/L above 1.5120.. bit expensive – but this might have “home run” potential.. urrghhh… Next support is 1.4800, then 1.4600-20 – inital target – and even 1.41ish afterwards. Would love to buy some options for that – but the RR – of course- is making this impossibly expensive.
Anyhow, see how we fare…
Good Luck!