Too Proud to fail ? buying EURUSD at 1.3650s
Posted by trywalker / 10:04 a.m. @ Hong KongFeb 9
(Bloomberg) — Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said he can’t call for outside aid as his government struggles to cut the European Union’s largest budget deficit.
“The worst possible signal which we could send out is one calling for outside help,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Athens yesterday. “We will tackle the deficit,” he said, adding that tax revenues in January exceeded forecasts “by some percentage points.”
I think above explains the situation of Greek problems& solutions right away. Chicken, Egg or Egg, Chicken ?
The Dow closed below 10,000 for the first time since November yesterday as the market players were keen to sell bank shares due to heightened concerns about the EU’s sovereign debt troubles while world’s largest bond fund, PIMCO, said as much at a press conference yesterday, commenting on its reallocation of risk from Europe into Brazilian bonds and the CNY currency, while also expressing confidence in the US economy.
There is also some talk of how short the market is in EURUSD (FT gives the numbers on a old fashion headline style.) and why it should drop to 1.3500 at least to test the big option barrier down there.
Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange show net short positions against the single currency rising from 39,500 contracts to 43,700 contracts, equivalent to $7.6bn
First of all, this data doesn’t include the post NFP allocations. Worse than expected NFP led a shift in US Treasury yield curve such as US2Y moving from 0.87s to 0.75s and moving back to 0.779 at the moment. The risk aversion on the back of global growth prospects led XXX-JPY, USD-EM and equity markets suffering accordingly but I think market is getting over committed in short EURUSD positions and idea of having EURUSD as a wash currency during this kind of wash-outs is a bit dangerous when DXY topping around and USDJPY moving in accordance to correlation with US2Y yields.
I believe the risk in EURUSD is topside with the overall positioning in an oversold zone with strong momentum and w that may bring an interesting topside squeeze if market fails to break downside support round 1.3575-85 area on a daily close.
So go long EURUSD at 1.3650-60 to buy more at 1.3595-05 area with a tight SL at 1.3570 and target 1.3940 with a trailing stop at 1.3715 if 1.3845 trades.














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