With possible pull back in global equity markets while risky assets getting hit across the board, USDMXN seems to be broken the short term bearish trend channel after closing the day above 13.0150 resistance.

USD index retracing higher while commodity prices heading south may put  extra pressure on MXN and we may have a rally in USDMXN up to 13.29 -13.31 area ( 13.2908 is 50% fibo of 12.7674 to 13.8142 rally vs. 55 days SMAVG at 13.3116)

I think it is a good buy between 13.0150-13.0550 with a tight SL at 12.935, targeting 13.2950.

1.6670 is  the key level for a weekly close in Cable .

I was expecting a 1.6710-1.6990 range for the week  but since the dovish  BOE minutes,  Sterling suffers across the board. Market seems to be trying to catch a falling knife with buying on dips price action but a daily close  below 1.6638 support probably will trigger the real SL action on the downside.

I think testing the 55 days SMAVG is inevitable if 1.6638 broken due to the risk off related GBPJPY selling while USD pulling back.

1.6744 is a very strong daily resistance on the topside to bear in mind ..

I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed;
At first there blows a gentle breeze
And the leaves on the trees
Softly flutter or sway;
Out there, far away,
The bells of water carriers incessantly ring;
I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed.

I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed;
Then suddenly birds fly by,
Flocks of birds, high up, in a hue and cry
While nets are drawn in the fishing grounds
And a woman’s feet begin to dabble in the water.
I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed.

I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed.
The Grand Bazaar is serene and cool,
A hubbub at the hub of the market,
Mosque yards are brimful of pigeons,
At the docks while hammers bang and clang
Spring winds bear the smell of sweat;
I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed.

I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed;
Still giddy since bygone bacchanals,
A seaside mansion with dingy boathouses is fast asleep,
Amid the din and drone of southern winds, reposed,
I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed.

I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed.
Now a dainty girl walks by on the sidewalk:
Cusswords, tunes and songs, malapert remarks;
Something falls on the ground out of her hand,
It’s a rose I guess.
I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed.

I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed;
A bird flutters round your skirt;
I know your brow is moist with sweat
And your lips are wet.
A silver moon rises beyond the pine trees:
I can sense it all in your heart’s throbbing.
I am listening to Istanbul, intent, my eyes closed.

by Orhan Veli Kanik

to Hong Kong…

13°C | 55°F

Some hawkish Fed-speak and softer US data than expectations seems to be main reason for the accelerated drop of EURUSD from 1.4940 to 1.4808 lows overnight. The talk of a DNT barrier ( 1.48 vs. 1.51 )  expiring this Friday held the pair not sliding under 1.4800 and squeeze afterward took EURUSD back to 1.4875 level for the Asian opening.

I think EURUSD will have a 1.4820-1.4890 range before London session.

While sell on rallies seems to be working since the failure of 1.5020 resistance-break  last week, an intraday break of 1.4885 resistance may bring a good quick squeeze up to 1.4910-15 where I think a good oppurtunity to sell on rally with tight SL around 1.4935.

The test of 1.4754 ( 55 days SMAVG) is on its way and a daily close below 1.4821 increases the risk or chance of a 1.4560 on the downside with daily oscillators signalling downside momentum recently.

In Weekly charts or terms, EURUSD needs to close below 1.4933 to confirm the rejection of bullish rally but it feels like will consolidate around 1.4610 ( 61.8% retrace of 1.6019 to 1.2330 drop )