The Whole Month’s P&L

at the end of the month just before the 10 days- holiday…

Post- US data lows at 1.4920 and supply was not impressive enough to hold it below 1.4955 and EURUSD headed north once again to stick around the key daily close level at 1.4982 on 24/11/2009.

I think  1.4920-1.4990  may be our range  in Asian session this morning  with good sell on rallies  supply around 1.4985-1.50.

1.4949 (23.6% Fibonacci level of 1.4626 to 1.5048)  and 1.4921 ( bottom of the bullish trend channel on 120 mins.) are two key intraday supports while 60  and 120 mins. charts suggests an intraday level at 1.4989-91 area. I think any daily close test rallies to 1.4982 should be capped above there in a bearish EURUSD sentiment.

An intraday break of 1.4925 is an important reversal which suggests a drop to 1.4785-95 area while a daily close below 1.4850 ( what  all the bears eyeing at the mom including me) suggests a quick drop down to 1.4565 with downside momentum ( fresh short positions) building  up.

A daily close above  1.4978  on the other hand  signals a break out and targets 1.5065 and 1.5215 accordingly.

as the Chicago Fed’s president told the FT “US rates may stay near zero until late 2010, perhaps 2011”.

EURUSD printed 1.4800 to take out the  DNT option barrier ( 1.48 vs. 1.51) last Friday and retraced a big figure on the back of XAU rally so far this morning.

60 mins. chart suggesting a good resistance at 1.4905 and a break of the resistance may lead a squeeze up to 1.4975. Having said that the weekly close below 1.4935 suggests a pullback and a test of 1.4765 and I am keen to stay short EURUSD between 1.4895-1.4905 with a tight SL at 1.4917, targeting 1.4820 and 1.4765 accordingly. A test of 1.4975 is another chance to sell into with a SL at 1.4995.

Have a nice week ahead.