The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprisingly decided to  maintain its policy rate at 3.75% today and market was caught on the wrong foot as 20 out of 22 economist were sure of a 25 bps rate hike.

Post-RBA decision AUD was slaughtered on the back of stop-loss and exit orders of long positions against USD, EUR, CAD and JPY. Overnight strength in global equity markets with Oil rallying around 4% brought a retrace to currency universe and with risk appetite bouncing, AUD trading almost 1 big figure better against those currencies above.

I was on the sell side above 0.9200-50 in AUDUSD thinking about any possibility of a rate hike in China or US may put pressure on IR differentials and limit the appreciation of mighty Aussie beyond 0.9350 against USD.  China helped on that argument and now more pressure on IR differentials as RBA may come to the end of its tightening cycle while market is still long of AUDs.

I think market is going to hold it firmly at 0.9020 and AUDUSD will put pressure on 0.8575-0.8565 support( 0.8565 is 200 days SMAVG vs. weekly bearish trend channel bottom at 0.8575) and may try to extend the drop down to 0.8215 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace of 0.6287 to 0.9406 on weekly.

While above is a more wider parameter based trading idea, for those short term punters, sell AUDUSD at 0.8875 and 0.8915 with a SL at 0.8945, target 0.8710 and 0.8565 accordingly.

Stocks rallied for a second day on Tuesday as better-than-expected earnings and that helped a rebound on risk appetite overnight as mighty AUD lead the way. It feels like a double bottom forming around 0.8775 level in AUDUSD pre NFP with market keen to sell on rallies around 0.8880-0.8920 area. ( GS Sales sent out an AUDUSD recommendation saying look to sell more on rallies where 0.8870/80 region should provide an initial resistance while a break of 0.8735 could signify more forced liquidation by the long-term players). EURUSD bottomed around 1.3930 with semi official bids around vs. 1.3980 offers while it still feels like a rush back to 1.4050 area. USDJPY feels like buy on dips today despite US2Y yields failing to drift higher. For those who love to sell JPY, watch the dip around 90.15 today..  I will try to post on CAD, AUD, Oil and EURCHF today.

Good luck all

SNB showed us on Friday, that they are not sleeping… Technically and with that in mind, being long EUR/CHF can be tried again. I am currently sitting long some spot around 1.4710-15, will add through 1.4695-85-75 and lobb it out below 1.4650 on S/L. I think the moment has come to see it rise again, into the mid 1.48s. Good Luck!

Strong manufacturing surveys in the US, Eurozone, and UK led investors into buying at the opening overnight and as ISM chairman Ore said the survey pointed to a V-shaped recovery, stocks closed higher overnight and brought a good retrace to risk appetite with USD losing grounds against majors.

A few investment houses publishing risk on trades seems to be attracting fear&greed players to get involved before NFP this Friday which I find a bit risky.

EURUSD seems to be basing around 1.3855-65 area on the back of take-profit appetite and 200 SMAVG weekly level at 1.3868. On intraday charts before RBA decision this morning ( a possible hike with a 78%  chance priced in will boost AUD sentiment and AUD leading the risk trades will be supportive for EURUSD as well ), EURUSD is trading in a very tight range between 1.3920-1.3940 and both on 120 mins and daily charts, a break of 1.3940 suggests a possible topside squeeze up to 1.4025 and 1.4075 accordingly.

A break of 1.3920 support brings another chance of 1.3880-1.3890 squeeze on the downside, where I would prefer to go long on dips with a tight SL at 1.3855 instead of a buy on break at 1.3940 with a stop-loss at 1.3915.

I finally managed to find the rhythm in trading last month despite a red number in P&L.  Market trading on the back of bear traps after a worse than expected NFP early in January helped me to pick the levels for a possible risk aversion. Guessing the turnaround in S&P and Crude Oil helped me to stay on the track for the rest of the month at the times of troubles.

Staying short EURUSD from 1.44s, AUDUSD from 0.9250s vs. long USDTRY from 1.45s and USDJPY from 88.50-89.30 area was good enough to cheer me up while losing money in illiquid Asian session two-way customer flows and stop-loss order executions in Wellington openings.

With the expectation of a black number in February, it is time to keep the motivation, confidence and team-work as high as possible to clear the sky from suspicious clouds. To make that happen, I need to have a better decision making mechanism which is only possible if I am energetic and in shape so  No drinking and losing weight policy for 2 months starting from today.

We are going to have the mighty NFP this Friday ( +15k exp.) and once again,  the rest of the month will be more based on that number.  I will be paying a lot of attention to a weekly close below/above at 1070 in S&P and 1.3868 ( 200 SMAVG in weekly) in EURUSD.